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特朗普就职演讲,向市场释放出这几个信号

上次更新时间:2017-01-21  文章来源:无佣网  作者:无佣网

  特朗普的就职演说主要重申了他此前竞选期间以及获胜后讲话中所强调的“让美国再次伟大(Make America Great Again)"的主题,但并未有对其上任后的施政细节有多少透露。
 
  从其演讲内容来看,有如下几点值得关注:
 
  一是特朗普就职演讲中指出了“美国的利益将会被优先考虑”和“买美国货、雇美国人”,即“涉及贸易、税收、移民、外交事务的每一项决定,都要从美国工人和家庭的利益出发。我们要保护好我们的国界,免受外国掠夺,不让他们生产我们的产品,偷走我们的企业,抢走我们的工作岗位。”这表明在特朗普上任后,其原有的反全球化、反移民和贸易保护主义的政策倾向不会改变。
 
  二是特朗普在演讲中特意提到了美国的基础设施建设,指出“我们向海外花费了亿万金额,但美国的基础设施却失修破败了。我们让别的国家富裕,却耗费了自己国家的财富、力量和自信。”这意味者特朗普上任后,其此前的“基础设施投资”提案并不会被搁置,并且仍可能结合”鼓励海外企业利润汇回“的方式来为之融资。
 
  三是特朗普在演讲中虽没有提到中国,但其演讲中诸如“我们帮助了别国工业的发展,却牺牲了本国工业”的言论依然含沙射影地指向了中美经贸问题。
 
  因此,对于特朗普此次演讲释放的信息以及对市场的影响,我们认为:
 
  首先,我们依然认为特朗普的财政刺激产生效果可能要等到2018年。这是因为不少计划的细节仍存在很大变数,并且国会至少需要几个月才能对预算项目采取行动。历史也表明了这一点,如图1所示,在最近继任共和党总统的首次任期内,美国预算赤字的扩大均发生在其就任的第二年。
 
  同时,高企的联邦政府债务也对特朗普的财政刺激形成制约(图2)。当前债务上限的暂停适用期将在今年3月期满,美国财政部可以在之后的几个月使用一些特殊措施避免债务超出上限,但到下半年仍需要解决债务上限的问题。届时虽然债务上限终将再度上调,但两党之间必须就如何调整财政开支达成新的协议,对原有的财政刺激产生抵消作用。
 
  因此,我们对2017年特朗普的财政刺激对美国经济的直接影响持谨慎态度。
 
  其次,我们认为相对于把中国列为“汇率操纵国”的可能性,中美贸易摩擦升级的风险更值得警惕。这是因为前者只是象征性的行动(更可能是未来美国与中国重启贸易谈判的筹码),其本身对中国经济并不会造成实质性的损害;并且人民币目前也不完全符合美国财政部现有汇率政策监测名单关于“汇率操纵”的认定标准(新的汇率政策监测名单将在今年4月公布,我们会密切关注)。
 
  而鉴于“制造业回归”将成为特朗普就任后的主要经济政策,我们预计针对中美间双边贸易出口的巨大差异,特朗普就任后中美之间的贸易摩擦将以对特定产品征收关税的形式升温(比如对中国出口美国的商品征收反倾销和反补贴税)。
 
  就特朗普就任后的资产配置而言,短期内我们依旧看好黄金。因此短期内金价的任何回调都将是交易性的买入机会。长期来看,尽管近期美元遭遇回调,但经济基本面和货币政策面因素依然支持强势美元,我们预计美元名义有效汇率在年内仍有5%的升值空间,而如果共和党的“边境调整税”在国会通过,将进一步加大美元的升值空间。
 
  最后,预计在其内阁提名获得参议院通过后,特朗普将于2月在参众两院的共同会议上发表讲话,届时投资者将有机会对其就任后的施政细节作进一步的了解。
 
  特朗普就职演讲原文及中文翻译
 
  Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter,President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans and people of the world, thank you.
 
  罗伯茨首席大法官,卡特总统,克林顿总统,布什总统,奥巴马总统,诸位美国同胞以及世界人民,感谢你们。
 
  We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and restore its promise for all of our people.
 
  美国的公民们,我们现在正参与到我们国家的重建中,正在重拾对美国人民的承诺。
 
  Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for many, many years to come. We will face challenges, we will confront hardships, but we will get the job done.
 
  在今后的许多年内,我们将共同决定美国乃至整个世界的道路。我们将面临挑战,我们会遭遇困难,但是我们将会完成这项工作。
 
  Every four years, we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power, and we are grateful to President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama for their gracious aid throughout this transition. They have been magnificent. Thank you.
 
  每过四年,我们都会聚集于国会大厦的台阶上,完成有序和平的权力交接。我们要感谢奥巴马总统和第一夫人米歇尔.奥巴马,他们在权力交接过程中给予我慷慨的帮助。他们一直很出色,谢谢你们。
 
  Today's ceremony, however, has very special meaning because today, we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington, D.C. and giving it back to you, the people.
 
  然而今天的典礼有着特殊的意义。因为今天,我们不仅仅是将权力由一任政府转至下一任政府,由一个政党转至另一个政党,而是将权力从华盛顿特区归还到你们手中,归还到人民手中。
 
  For too long, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. And while they celebrated in our nation's capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land.
 
  长久以来,当人们承担了支出之后,却只有华盛顿的小部分人得到了政府的资助。华盛顿很富裕,但是人们依旧还是不能享受到富裕的果实。政治家很富裕,但是人们失去了工作机会,工厂不断倒闭。法律只是法律,它保障不了我国人民的权利。他们所得的成功不属于你们所有人的成功。他们所得的胜利不属于你们所有人的胜利。当他们在华盛顿庆祝的时候,那份喜悦并没有传达到每一个正在为生活挣扎中的家庭。
 
  That all changes starting right here and right now because this moment is your moment, it belongs to you.
 
  而这些都于此时此刻在这里开始改变,因为此刻正是属于你们的时刻。
 
  It belongs to everyone gathered here today and everyone watching all across America. This is your day. This is your celebration. And this, the United States of America, is your country.
 
  现在是属于在场的所有人以及那些关注着美国发展的人的时代。这是你们的时代,这是你们的庆典,而且美利坚合众国是你们的美利坚合众国。
 
  What truly matters is not which party controls our government, but whether our government is controlled by the people.
 
  最重要的事情不是是什么政党治理我们的政府,而是我们的政府是否是一个民治的政府。
 
  January 20th, 2017 will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again.
 
  2017年1月20日,这一天将会成为人民重新成为国家主宰者的重要一天。
 
  The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.
 
  那些曾被遗忘的人们将不再被人遗忘。
 
  Everyone is listening to you now. You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement, the likes of which the world has never seen before.
 
  你们每个人的心声都会被倾听。你们都是数百万人中的一个,是历史长河中的一份子,是独一无二的那一个。
 
  At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction, that a nation exists to serve its citizens. Americans want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for their families, and good jobs for themselves. These are just and reasonable demands of righteous people and a righteous public.
 
  此时此刻,我们信念坚定:国为服务公民而存在。美国人民都希望自己的孩子有好的学校接受教育,邻里左右安全和谐,工作稳定体面。这些都是美国民众对公民权利的合理诉求,亦是美国政府的执政方向。
 
  But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists: mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities; rusted out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation; an education system flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge; and the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential.
 
  然而,对我们许多公民而言,事实却截然不同:内陆城市仍然困居着大量母亲和孩子;生锈闲置的工厂如一块块墓碑散落在我们的国土上;教育系统千疮百孔,让我们年轻可爱的学生们失去了学习知识的机会,犯罪枪支以及毒品肆虐,夺走了成千上万美国人的生命,亦洗劫了我们的国家,使我们的国家失去了如此多尚未实现的发展机会。
 
  This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.
 
  这一美国人民的残杀应于此时此地立刻停止。
 
  We are one nation and their pain is our pain. Their dreams are our dreams. And their success will be our success. We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny. The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans.
 
  我们只有一个国家,他人之殇即我们之殇,他人之梦即我们之梦,他人之成功即我们之成功。我们同心协力,荣誉与共,今天,我在此发表就职演说,亦是我对美国人民的庄严承诺。
 
  For many decades, we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry; subsidized the armies of other countries, while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. We've defended other nations' borders while refusing to defend our own.
 
  许多年来,我们帮助了别国工业发展,却牺牲了本国工业;帮助别国军队发展,却没能扩充自己的军队;帮助邻国守卫国土,却忽视了本国边境。
 
  And spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas while America's infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay. We've made other countries rich, while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon.
 
  我们向海外花费了亿万金额,但美国的基础设施却失修破败了。我们让别的国家富裕,却耗费了自己国家的财富、力量和自信心。
 
  One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores, with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world.But that is the past. And now, we are looking only to the future.
 
  工厂接连倒闭或搬离海外,从没考虑过被抛弃的亿万美国工人的处境。我们中产阶级的财富在国内抽离,重新分配到了世界各地。但这都是过去的事情了。现在,我们只看往未来。
 
  We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it's going to be only America first, America first.
 
  我们今天聚集在此,要颁布新的法令,让每个城市、每个外国首府、每个强国都听见。从今天起,我们将用全新的眼界来治理我们的国家;从今天起,美国的利益会被优先考虑。
 
  Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs.
 
  涉及贸易、税收、移民、外交事务的每一项决定,都要从美国工人和家庭的利益出发。我们要保护好我们的国界,免受外国掠夺,不让他们生产我们的产品,偷走我们的企业,抢走我们的工作岗位。
 
  Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body and I will never ever let you down.
 
  保护会带来繁荣,带来强大。我会鞠躬尽瘁,不让你们失望。
 
  America will start winning again, winning like never before.
 
  美国会再次强大起来,那时候的美国会比从前好上百倍千倍。
 
  We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams.
 
  失业问题、国土边界问题、财富不均问题、还有我们的梦想,这些都会一一得到解决和实现。
 
  We will build new roads and highways and bridges and airports and tunnels and railways all across our wonderful nation. We will get our people off of welfare and back to work, rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor.
 
  我们会修建道路、桥梁、飞机场、隧道、铁路,让这些便利的出行设施遍布我们美丽的国家。我们会让人们从福利制度带来的浑噩生活中清醒过来,让他们回归工作,以吾国人民的辛劳血汗再建这个国家。
 
  We will follow two simple rules; buy American and hire American.
 
  我们会遵循两个简单原则:买美国货,雇美国人。
 
  We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example. We will shine for everyone to follow.
 
  我们将与世界各国寻求充满善意和友谊的外交关系,但做这一切的前提必须是所有国家都有权利把自己的利益放在首位。我们并不是要把我们的生活方式强加给别人,但我们愿成为一个典范。我们会是世人追随的典范。
 
  We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate from the face of the Earth.
 
  我们会加固旧联盟,发展新联盟,把文明世界团结起来,以此与伊斯兰恐怖主义作对抗。我们势必会让它从这个地球消失。
 
  At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America, and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice.
 
  国家政治的基础,就是我们对祖国的绝对忠诚。通过对祖国的忠诚,我们便能再找回人与人之间的信任。当你满心心系祖国,种族的偏见便自当消失。
 
  The Bible tells us how good and pleasant it is when God's people live together in unity. We must speak our minds openly, debate our disagreements honestly, but always pursue solidarity. When America is united, America is totally unstoppable.
 
  圣经告诉我们,当上帝的子民都团结一致的,这个世界会有多么美好。所以当我们敞开心扉,大胆地而诚实地说出我们的不满的同时,也别忘了要追求团结。当美国人民团结起来,这个国家便无坚不摧。
 
  There should be no fear. We are protected and we will always be protected. We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement. And most importantly, we will be protected by God.
 
  这里不应该有恐惧。我们是受保护且当永远得到保护。我们将受到军队中伟大军人的保护,无论男女,亦将受到法律的保护。最重要的是,我们会受到上帝的保护。
 
  Finally, we must think big and dream even bigger. In America, we understand that a nation is only living as long as it is striving. We will no longer accept politicians who are all talk and no action, constantly complaining, but never doing anything about it.
 
  最后,我们必须有更深邃的思考,有更远大的梦想。在美国,我们懂得一个国家之所以长存是因为不断的努力。我们将不再接受只说不行动的政客们,那些不断地抱怨,却从来没有做过任何实事的政客。
 
  The time for empty talk is over. Now arrives the hour of action.
 
  空谈的时间已经结束,现在是行动的时刻。
 
  Do not allow anyone to tell you that it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again.
 
  不要让任何人告诉你这是不可能的。没有任何挑战可以比得上美国的心、斗争和精神。我们不会失败,我们的国家将再次蓬勃发展,繁荣昌盛。
 
  We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow. A new national pride will stir ourselves, lift our sights and heal our divisions.
 
  我们站在一个新世纪诞生的时代,准备打开空间的奥秘,将地球从疾病的痛苦中拯救出来,利用未来的能源、工业和技术。新的民族自豪感将激发我们,拓宽我们的视野,弥补我们的分歧。
 
  It's time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget, that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots.
 
  是时候记住,我们要永远铭记古老的智慧和我们的士兵,不管我们是黑人、黄种人或白种人,我们是同样流着鲜红血液的爱国者。
 
  We all enjoy the same glorious freedoms and we all salute the same great American flag.
 
  我们都享受同样光荣的自由,致敬同一张伟大的美国国旗。
 
  And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the wind-swept plains of Nebraska, they look up at the same night sky, they will their heart with the same dreams, and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty creator.
 
  无论是出生在底特律的城区,还是内布拉斯加狂风肆虐的平原的孩子,他们抬头看见的都是同一片夜空,他们心中都有着同一个梦想,他们生命的气息都由同一个全能造物主注入。
 
  So to all Americans in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, from ocean to ocean, hear these words: You will never be ignored again.
 
  所以,住在近的和远的、小的和大的所有城市,从一座山脉到另一座山脉、一个大洋到另一个大洋的所有美国人,听着这些话吧:你们永远都不会再被忽视了。
 
  Your voice, your hopes, and your dreams will define our American destiny. And your courage and goodness and love will forever guide us along the way.
 
  你们的声音,你们的希望,你们的梦想将诠释我们美国的命运。你们的勇气、善良和爱心将永远引导着我们一路前行。
 
  Together, we will make America strong again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again. And yes, together we will make America great again.
 
  团结在一起,我们将会让美国再次强大。我们将会让美国再次富有。我们将会让美国再次自豪。我们将会让美国再次安全。还有,是的,我们将一起让美国再次伟大。
 
  Thank you. God bless you. And God bless America.
 
  谢谢你们。上帝保佑你们。上帝保佑美国。
 
  Thank you.
 
  谢谢你们。
 
  God bless America.
 
  上帝保佑美国(完)。

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